Thursday, May 26, 2016

Clearing up some confusion about exchange wagering spreads

Like anything new, there's going to be some confusion about how exchange wagering works.  I saw a good example of this in the comments on an article about exchange wagering a few days ago.  One of the commenters was claimed that the difference between the prices offered for 'bet for' and 'bet against' on the exchange is evidence that rather than matching bettors against each other, Betfair is booking the bets themselves.

This conclusion could not be more wrong.  In fact, it's a logical impossibility for the bid and ask price in any market to be the same.  Think about it for a minute.  If I'm willing to bet on a horse at 5-1 odds and you're willing to bet against the same horse at 5-1 odds...then the exchange will book our bets against each other, and neither of our offers will still be listed on the exchange.  The 'bet for' bids represent the best offers to bet on a horse that have not yet found a match.  And the 'bet against' bids represent the best offers to bet against a horse that have not yet found a match.  If the numbers were the same, then they'd be matched and removed from Betfair's display.

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